Cancer in Victoria 2023

In 2023, 38,715 Victorians were diagnosed with cancer, averaging 106 new cases daily, with males accounting for 54% and females 46%. A total of 651 individuals were diagnosed with multiple primary tumours, predominantly solid tumours (84%).

Cancer diagnoses rose by 5.7% compared to 2022, with an age-standardised rate of 482 cases per 100,000, reflecting a return to pre-pandemic levels after COVID-19-related fluctuations in 2020 and 2022. Long-term trends show varying incidence rates, with periods of increase, stability, and decline since 1982.

Victoria is the first jurisdiction to release 2023 cancer incidence data, providing a reliable benchmark for other regions and highlighting the importance of ongoing monitoring of survival rates and diagnosis stages to assess the pandemic's impact.

A snapshot of new cancer diagnoses in Victoria in 2023

• 106 Victorians are diagnosed with cancer every day.
• For every 100 females diagnosed with cancer, there are 120 males diagnosed.
• Victoria recorded its highest-ever number of cancer diagnoses in 2023.
• The most common cancers in Victoria are cancers of the prostate, breast, bowel, lung, melanoma. These cancers account for 56% of all diagnoses in Victoria.
• Blood cancers account for 13% of the estimated 39,376 new cancer diagnoses in Victoria in 2023.
• Aboriginal Victorians are 64% more likely to be diagnosed with cancer than non-Aboriginal Victorians.
• Melanoma diagnoses in regional Victoria

In 2023, cancer was the leading cause of death in Victoria, accounting for 12,159 deaths, or 27% of all deaths, with males making up 56% of these fatalities. On average, 33 Victorians died from cancer daily, with Aboriginal Victorians 2.8 times more likely to die from cancer than non-Aboriginal Victorians.

The most common causes of cancer death were lung, bowel, pancreas, prostate, and breast cancers, which together accounted for over half of all cancer deaths. Despite an ageing and growing population, the age-standardised cancer mortality rate has been steadily declining due to advancements in prevention, diagnosis, and treatment, dropping to 170 deaths per 100,000 for males and 114 per 100,000 for females in 2023.

However, the decline has slowed in recent years, with projections showing a continued 19% decrease in mortality rates for both sexes over the next 15 years. The majority of cancer deaths occurred in individuals aged 75 and older, with only 2.4% of deaths among those under 45.

While most cancer mortality rates are decreasing, exceptions include uterine cancer, which is projected to rise slightly. It is more important now than ever for ongoing improvements in healthcare and targeted cancer interventions.

A snapshot of cancer mortality in Victoria in 2023

• In Victoria, 33 people die from cancer every day.
• For every 100 females who die from cancer, there are 127 male cancer deaths.
• In the last 10 years, the cancer mortality rate has decreased 1.7% per year in men and 1.4% per year in women.
• Aboriginal Victorians are 2.8 times more likely to die from cancer than non-Aboriginal Victorians.
• The leading causes of cancer death are cancers of the lung, bowel, pancreas, prostate and breast, which together account for just over half of all deaths.

In Victoria in 2023, the five-year cancer survival rate reached 72%, an increase from 49% three decades ago, with survival rates of 73% for females and 71% for males. Survival rates vary significantly by cancer type, demographic factors, and the stage at diagnosis, ranging from 10% for mesothelioma to 98% for testicular cancer.

Over the past 20 years, significant improvements in five-year survival were observed in cancers such as multiple myeloma, chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML), and liver cancer, driven by earlier detection, public health efforts, targeted therapies, and advanced care.

However, some cancers, like vulvar and renal pelvis cancers, saw declines in survival rates. Survival disparities by age persist, with younger patients generally having better outcomes. Advances in screening, treatment, and multidisciplinary care have been pivotal in driving these improvements.

A snapshot of cancer survival in Victoria in 2023:

• The 5-year survival rate for Victorians diagnosed with cancer has increased 48% over the past 30 years.
• Across all cancers, the 5-year survival rate is 73% for females and 71% for males.
• Survival rates vary significantly across cancer types and are also impacted by factors such as age, socioeconomic position, ethnicity, geographic location of residence, and the cancer stage at time of diagnosis.
• Victorians who survive four years after a cancer diagnosis have a high likelihood of reaching five-year survival across most cancer types.

Cancer prevalence measures the number of people living with a previous cancer diagnosis and reflects the interplay between cancer incidence and survival. As of January 2024, 133,140 Victorians, or about 2% of the population, had been diagnosed with cancer in the past five years, with prevalence being higher among older adults.

Over the last 40 years, the prevalence of cancer has increased across all age groups, most notably among those aged 60 and older, due to population growth, rising cancer incidence, and improved survival rates driven by earlier detection and advancements in treatment.

The number of Victorians aged 50 and older living with cancer diagnosed in the past five years has nearly quadrupled since 1989, highlighting the growing need for services to address the long-term physical, psychological, and financial challenges faced by cancer survivors.

A snapshot of cancer prevalence in Victoria in 2023:

• An estimated 133,140 Victorians are alive after a cancer diagnosis in the past five years, and 219,143 Victorians are alive after a cancer diagnosis in the past 10 years.
• 363,970 Victorians who are alive today have been diagnosed with cancer in the last four decades.
• The proportion of Victorians alive after a cancer diagnosis in the previous five years has more than doubled in the last 35 years.
• The most prevalent cancer for Victorian men aged 50 and over is prostate cancer.
• The most prevalent cancer for Victorian women aged 50 and over is breast cancer.

In 2023, Victoria’s population grew by 2.8%, recovering from negative growth during the COVID-19 pandemic, with 77.9% of residents living in major cities, 18.2% in inner regional areas, and 3.8% in outer regional areas.

Aboriginal Victorians, representing 1.2% of the population, have a median age of 24 years and face significantly lower life expectancy compared to the general population.

About one-third of Victorian households speak a language other than English, with the most common languages being Mandarin, Vietnamese, and Greek.

Life expectancy in Victoria is 85.4 years for females and 81.5 years for males, reflecting Australia’s globally high standards, though disparities persist among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities.

Victoria’s population is ageing, with the median age rising to 37 years, and the proportion of individuals aged 60 and older continuing to increase for both men and women. These demographic shifts highlight the growing diversity in the state of Victoria, and evolving health needs of its people.

A snapshot of Victoria's population in 2023

• Victoria’s population is growing and ageing.
• Aboriginal Victorians represent 1.2% of the state’s population.
• About one in three Victorians are born overseas.